{"id":10224,"date":"2012-01-11T20:22:13","date_gmt":"2012-01-11T18:22:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10224"},"modified":"2012-01-11T20:23:19","modified_gmt":"2012-01-11T18:23:19","slug":"dunden-sonra-yarindan-once","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dunden-sonra-yarindan-once\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnden Sonra Yar\u0131ndan \u00d6nce"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin son 10 y\u0131ldaki performans\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken, sadece g\u00fczel \u015feyler s\u00f6ylemek u\u011fruna ipin ucunu ka\u00e7\u0131ranlar var. Son \u00f6rne\u011fi M\u00dcS\u0130AD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00d6mer Cihad Vardar. Derne\u011fin Samsun\u2019daki 17. Genel Kurul toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ne dedi M\u00dcS\u0130AD Ba\u015fkan\u0131?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2568966709\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>10 y\u0131l \u00f6nce ya\u015fanan krize at\u0131fta bulundu ve \u015fu ifadeyi kulland\u0131: \u201cOn y\u0131l \u00f6nce bize, \u2018T\u00fcrk ekonomisi bu noktalara gelecek\u2019 deselerdi g\u00fcler ge\u00e7erdik. T\u00fcrkiye son on y\u0131lda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli mesafeler ald\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Say\u0131n Vardar sayg\u0131 duydu\u011fum bir isimdir ama, bence bu ifadesi eksik ve temelsizdir. \u00d6ncelikle d\u00fczeltmeye \u015furadan ba\u015flamak gerekir. 10 y\u0131l \u00f6nce bir kriz yoktu. 2001 senesinde ya\u015fanan, k\u0131sa s\u00fcrece s\u0131\u011fd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc krizdi.<\/p>\n<p>Birincisi 1998 y\u0131l\u0131nda Uzakdo\u011fu\u2019dan ba\u015flay\u0131p, Rusya\u2019y\u0131 vuran, tek pazar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle de bizi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileyen bir buhrand\u0131. Arkas\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ciddi anlamda can ve mal kay\u0131plar\u0131yla ilgili fatura \u00e7\u0131karan Marmara Depremi geldi. \u00dcstelik bu ikinci krizde \u00f6zellikle bat\u0131dan yard\u0131m diyen gelen paralar\u0131n, daha sonra \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze \u2018bor\u00e7 olarak konulmas\u0131n\u0131 da\u2019 unutmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Nihayet 2001\u2019deki, biriken sorunlar\u0131 kullan\u0131p, paray\u0131 y\u00f6netenlerin bir gecede tetikledi\u011fi o a\u011f\u0131r bedelli kriz. Hemen \u00f6ncesinde, yani 2 bin y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131nda bat\u0131 ekonomilerindeki sars\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim 10 sene sonra geldi\u011fimiz noktaya. Daha iyi durumda oldu\u011fumuzu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek i\u00e7in baz\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 yapmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomik anlamda yap\u0131sal kayda de\u011fer bir ilerleme sa\u011fland\u0131 m\u0131? TOBB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu, her sene Kartepe\u2019deki ekonomi zirvesinde \u2018yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 yapmal\u0131y\u0131z\u2019 diye anlat\u0131yorsa, hay\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Nitekim bu yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmedi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in bug\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 100 milyar dolar seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Makro dengeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k var m\u0131? Evet, cari a\u00e7\u0131k 11 ayda 70 milyar dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. Daha m\u0131 az bor\u00e7luyuz? Kat be kat daha fazla. Hi\u00e7 kimse borcun i\u00e7indeki kamunun pay\u0131 aldatmacas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131na s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmas\u0131n. Hane halk\u0131 borcu, \u015firketlerin pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, Moody\u2019s\u2019in daha bug\u00fcn gelen uyar\u0131s\u0131yla da dikkat \u00e7ekmeye devam ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3601804402\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2001\u2019deki felaketi bankalar\u0131n 5 milyar dolarl\u0131k pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrseniz, bug\u00fcn sadece reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 100 milyar dolara dayanan pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate alarak kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z riski hesap edebilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kadar bor\u00e7lanmaya kar\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zelle\u015ftirme gelirlerini \u00fczerine koyun, b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131yla alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izin, sokaktaki i\u015fsizlikle sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131n. 10 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6zeti T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanarak ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fidir. Peki gelen para nas\u0131l bor\u00e7 olur?<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye s\u00f6ylenenin aksine son 10 y\u0131lda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir f\u0131rsat ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. D\u00fcnyada likiditenin bu denli ucuz oldu\u011fu bir s\u00fcreci \u0131skalad\u0131. E\u011fer gelen paray\u0131 bizim yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi yerseniz, \u00f6l\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mlara y\u00f6nlendirirseniz ad\u0131 bor\u00e7 olur. Fakat gelen kredileri yeniden ve teknolojik bir altyap\u0131ya sahip \u00fcretim ekonomisi yaratmak i\u00e7in kullansayd\u0131k, bu para bor\u00e7 de\u011fil, finansman olurdu.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa 58. H\u00fck\u00fcmet \u2018\u00dcretece\u011fiz, KOB\u0130\u2019leri kalk\u0131nd\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z\u2019 diyerek yola \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131 m\u0131? Ama geldi\u011fimiz noktada kumar ekonomisi g\u00fcndemi me\u015fgul ederken, ne uluslararas\u0131 ger\u00e7ek anlamda rekabet yapabilecek KOB\u0130\u2019ler olu\u015ftu, ne de ortada ger\u00e7ek katma de\u011ferli bir \u00fcretim kald\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4183135714\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye bu d\u00f6nemi do\u011fru kullansayd\u0131, bug\u00fcn \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 \u015feyleri konu\u015fuyor olabilirdik. 2 bin y\u0131l\u0131nda D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan IMF\u2019ye herkesin, ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131zdan dolay\u0131 bizi \u00f6vd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlatmak isterim. Ama M\u00dcS\u0130AD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vardar tekrar s\u00f6yleyebilir: \u2018D\u00fcn bunlar s\u00f6ylenseydi, g\u00fclerdik.\u2019 Peki yar\u0131n bug\u00fcn s\u00f6yleneni hat\u0131rlay\u0131p, g\u00fclebilecek miyiz?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin son 10 y\u0131ldaki performans\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken, sadece g\u00fczel \u015feyler s\u00f6ylemek u\u011fruna ipin ucunu ka\u00e7\u0131ranlar var. Son \u00f6rne\u011fi M\u00dcS\u0130AD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00d6mer Cihad Vardar. Derne\u011fin Samsun\u2019daki 17.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":899,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10224"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10224\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/899"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}