{"id":10161,"date":"2012-01-11T10:05:53","date_gmt":"2012-01-11T08:05:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10161"},"modified":"2012-01-11T10:06:05","modified_gmt":"2012-01-11T08:06:05","slug":"mudahale-ve-doviz-kuru-hareketi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mudahale-ve-doviz-kuru-hareketi\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00fcdahale ve D\u00f6viz Kuru Hareketi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Merkez Bankas\u0131\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>t\u00fcm dikkatini d\u00f6viz kurundaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak, kurun z\u0131play\u0131p gitmesini engellemek \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bunda haks\u0131z da say\u0131lmaz. Zira kurda\u00a0 oynakl\u0131k\u00a0 ve s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n ama\u00e7lar\u0131na ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.\u00a0\u00a0 Merkez\u00a0 Bankas\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 temel amac\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak. Bunun i\u00e7in enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131\u00a0 esas\u00a0 g\u00f6revi olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamak da Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n ama\u00e7lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1102144422\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00f6viz kurunda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 ya da s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminin belirmesi Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yerine getirmesini engelliyor. D\u00f6viz kurunda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 finansal istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k \u00fcretiyor, belirsizli\u011fi besleyerek iktisadi karar almay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve, belki de en \u00f6nemlisi, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda bulan\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131p, kur hareketini b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle spek\u00fclatif motiflere teslim ediyor.\u00a0 \u00d6te yandan, d\u00f6viz kurunun s\u00fcrekli yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru hareket etmesi\u00a0 belli bir vadede\u00a0 fiyatlara\u00a0 yans\u0131yor ve enflasyonu k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Belki en k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc bu ikisinin bir araya gelmesi. D\u00f6viz kurunda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru artmas\u0131 hem oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n olumsuz etkilerini \u00fcretiyor hem de kurdaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin enflasyonist bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Bu daha \u00e7ok spek\u00fclatif bask\u0131lardan kaynaklan bir durum. Kurun y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisini \u00fcreten spek\u00fclatif dayatmalar hem\u00a0 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0 besliyor hem de kuru y\u00fckselterek enflasyonu besliyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fct\u00fcn\u00a0 bunlar\u00a0 bug\u00fcnlerde Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n kafas\u0131n\u0131 neden d\u00f6viz kuruna takm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Son haftalarda bizim d\u00f6viz\u00a0 piyasas\u0131 kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kurda y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminin bir araya geldi\u011fi olumsuz konuma s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan ve b\u00fcy\u00fck mebla\u011flarla m\u00fcdahale etmese d\u00f6viz kurunun f\u0131r\u0131ldak haline gelip yukar\u0131ya t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Burada d\u00f6viz kurunda hareketi\u00a0 uyaran\u00a0 iki farkl\u0131 geli\u015fmeyi birbirinden ay\u0131rmak gerekiyor. D\u00f6viz kuru ya kur \u00fczerinde etkili olan iktisadi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerin de\u011fi\u015fmesi sonucu hareketlenir ya da \u015fu veya bu nedenle artm\u0131\u015f olan spek\u00fclatif\u00a0 giri\u015fimlerin \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olarak hareket etmeye ba\u015flar. Bu iki durumda Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n tutumu farkl\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankalar\u0131 ekonominin kendi i\u00e7inden gelen ivmenin hareket ettirdi\u011fi d\u00f6viz kuruna kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahale etmekten genellikle ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bunun nedeni bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahalelerin etkin olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetinin ise y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Merkez Bankalar\u0131 spek\u00fclasyonun ya da bir t\u00fcr korku motifinin hareketlendirdi\u011fi d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na hemen ve gerekirse b\u00fcy\u00fck mebla\u011flarla m\u00fcdahale eder.\u00a0 Zira bu gibi durumlarda m\u00fcdahaleden ka\u00e7\u0131nmak ya da m\u00fcdahalede hasis davranmak oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131r, kuru y\u00fckseltir. Yani hareketsiz kalmak en\u00a0 olumsuz kombinasyonun d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na egemen olmas\u0131na neden olur. Bu durumda m\u00fcdahale etmemenin maliyeti y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n<p>TCMB&#8217;nin son s\u0131ralardaki biraz da tela\u015fl\u0131 fiziki ve s\u00f6zel m\u00fcdahalelerine bak\u0131lacak olursa d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki duruma konulan te\u015fhis bunun daha \u00e7ok spek\u00fclasyon ve\/veya korku g\u00fcd\u00fclerinden kaynaklanan bir hareket oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. Asl\u0131nda son veriler de bu te\u015fhisi do\u011frular niteliktedir. \u015eu s\u0131ralarda ekonominin kendi ili\u015fkiler yuma\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde do\u011furdu\u011fu d\u00f6viz arz ve talebi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin hareketi d\u00f6viz fiyat\u0131n\u0131 oynak ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc yapacak g\u00fc\u00e7 ve nitelikte de\u011fildir. D\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesindeki e\u011filimin tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 bunun en \u00f6nemli kan\u0131t\u0131d\u0131r. Bu durumda\u00a0 spek\u00fclasyon art\u0131 korku vb gibi motiflerin s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi bir d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 oyna\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek do\u011fru olur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2577394851\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Burada ilgin\u00e7 bir duruma da i\u015faret etmek gerekir. Verilerden ve beyanlardan\u00a0 d\u00f6viz\u00a0 kurunu oynak hale getirip, yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru bask\u0131layan etkenin bilinen ve\u00a0 al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f etken olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Yani d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda oynanan oyunun faili &#8220;ola\u011fan \u015f\u00fcpheli&#8221; de\u011fil. Genellikle yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda spek\u00fclasyon e\u011filimli talep yarat\u0131r, ortal\u0131\u011f\u0131 korkuya verir ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te oynakl\u0131k artar d\u00f6viz kuru yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru bask\u0131lan\u0131r. Bu t\u00fcr oyunlarda &#8220;ola\u011fan \u015f\u00fcpheli&#8221; yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi, \u00f6rne\u011fin Say\u0131n Babacan&#8217;\u0131n beyan\u0131ndan, anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar\u0131yla d\u00f6viz kurunu istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p, y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131ya \u00e7evirecek bir yabanc\u0131 hareketi yok. Yani yabanc\u0131lar panikleyip, d\u00f6vizi al\u0131p ka\u00e7mak niyetinde de\u011filler. Tersine, netinde bu kaynaktan gelen bir d\u00f6viz fazlas\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6yleniyor. D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki \u00e7alkalanmay\u0131 daha \u00e7ok yerli akt\u00f6rlerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor bu.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda\u00a0 TCMB yabanc\u0131lar\u0131 dizginlemekten \u00e7ok yerlileri sakinle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu daha m\u0131\u00a0 kolay bir i\u015ftir bilmiyorum do\u011frusu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3935542582\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131\u00a0t\u00fcm dikkatini d\u00f6viz kurundaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak, kurun z\u0131play\u0131p gitmesini engellemek \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bunda haks\u0131z da say\u0131lmaz. Zira kurda\u00a0 oynakl\u0131k\u00a0 ve s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10161\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}