{"id":10118,"date":"2012-01-10T09:22:04","date_gmt":"2012-01-10T07:22:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10118"},"modified":"2012-01-10T09:22:16","modified_gmt":"2012-01-10T07:22:16","slug":"nispi-fiyat-degisimi-mal-ve-hizmet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/nispi-fiyat-degisimi-mal-ve-hizmet\/","title":{"rendered":"Nispi Fiyat De\u011fi\u015fimi: Mal ve Hizmet"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar haftaya nispeten sakin ba\u015flad\u0131. Ama dolar euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Parite 1.27\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. \u0130MKB ise d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. TL ise g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korudu. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde sepet 2.13 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4257268996\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kas\u0131m sanayi \u00fcretimi T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re toplam sanayi y\u00fczde 8.4; imalat sanayii y\u00fczde 7.6 artt\u0131. Takvim ve mevsim etkisi temizlenince ekime g\u00f6re toplam y\u00fczde 2.5; imalat sanayii y\u00fczde 3.1 geriledi. Beklentilerle uyumludur.<\/p>\n<p>Kurla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yeni bir tart\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131. Bakan Babacan ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi. TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmesine ra\u011fmen ihracatta art\u0131\u015f\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sorgulad\u0131. K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde kurun ihracata etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Orta d\u00f6nemi beklemek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Gene Bakan Babacan\u2019dan \u00f6nemli bir a\u00e7\u0131klama geldi. TL de\u011fer kaybederken sermaye giri\u015fi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u0130lgin\u00e7; d\u00f6viz talebinin i\u00e7eriden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Aral\u0131k ve ocak \u00f6demeler dengesi yay\u0131nlan\u0131nca ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Nispi fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nemi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon analizinde \u00f6l\u00e7me sorunlar\u0131na s\u0131k s\u0131k de\u011finiyorum. Gazete man\u015fetlerine \u00e7\u0131kan T\u00dcFE \u2018ya\u015fam maliyetini\u2019 hesaplamak \u00fczere tasarlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile birbirinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u00e7ok say\u0131da etkeni yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bunlardan biri de nispi fiyatlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesidir. Piyasa ekonomisine dinamizmini fiyat hareketleri verir. T\u00fcketim, \u00fcretim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlar belirler. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile fiyatlar hem k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde dalgalan\u0131r hem uzun d\u00f6nem e\u011filimleri olu\u015fur.<\/p>\n<p>Nispi fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi para politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in hayatidir. Bilinen \u00f6rne\u011fi hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Dolayl\u0131 vergide art\u0131\u015f \u2018ya\u015fam maliyetini\u2019 y\u00fckseltir. Ancak enflasyonist de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc vatanda\u015f\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc azalt\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece toplam talep k\u0131s\u0131l\u0131r. Petrol fiyat\u0131, d\u00f6viz kuru vs. benzer etki yapar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2506818141\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Enflasyon analizinde kiralar\u0131 ve berber fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 o nedenle \u00f6nemsiyorum. Ancak, tekil fiyatlar yan\u0131ltabilir. Daha genel kategorileri kullanmak gerekiyor. \u00d6zellikle mal fiyatlar\u0131 ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131 ayr\u0131m\u0131 bu ba\u011flamda \u00e7ok yararl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Maalesef T\u00dc\u0130K bu ayr\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 yay\u0131nlam\u0131yor. \u0130mdad\u0131ma Turkey Data Monitor ekibi yeti\u015fti (www.turkeydatamonitor.com). T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in AB Harmonize T\u00dcFE verileri 1996\u2019dan ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Kas\u0131m 2011\u2019e kadar geliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130ki istisna d\u00f6nem<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nispi fiyat endeksini, mal fiyatlar\u0131 endeksini hizmet fiyatlar\u0131 endeksine b\u00f6lerek hesapl\u0131yoruz. Ocak 1996\u2019y\u0131 100 ald\u0131m. Mevsim etkisini temizlemedim. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile aydan aya sert dalgalanmalar var. Uzun d\u00f6nem e\u011filimini ayr\u0131ca g\u00f6sterdim (trend).<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-679592225\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ktisat teorisi uzun d\u00f6nemde mallar\u0131n hizmetlere k\u0131yasla ucuzlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcr. Hizmet kesimlerinde verimlili\u011fin daha yava\u015f artmas\u0131na atfedilir. Genelde T\u00fcrkiye deneyimi ile uyumludur.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak iki istisna d\u00f6nem var. Biri, 2001 krizi sonras\u0131; mallar\u0131n nisbi fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckseliyor. Nedeni d\u00f6viz kurunun s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131d\u0131r. Mart 2003\u2019den sonra, TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 ile birlikte yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011feri 2007 yaz\u0131nda devreye giriyor. \u00d6nce nispi fiyatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f duruyor. 2009 ortas\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7iyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi 2011\u2019de iyice belirginle\u015fiyor. Buraya bir mim koyal\u0131m. Analizi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar haftaya nispeten sakin ba\u015flad\u0131. Ama dolar euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Parite 1.27\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. \u0130MKB ise d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. TL ise g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korudu. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde sepet&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10118\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}