{"id":10112,"date":"2012-01-10T09:14:44","date_gmt":"2012-01-10T07:14:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10112"},"modified":"2012-01-10T09:15:00","modified_gmt":"2012-01-10T07:15:00","slug":"sanayi-uretiminde-gelismeler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sanayi-uretiminde-gelismeler\/","title":{"rendered":"Sanayi \u00dcretiminde Geli\u015fmeler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Birka\u00e7 rakamdan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ilk sonu\u00e7 \u015fu: Kas\u0131m 2011 itibariyle sanayi \u00fcretiminde bir yava\u015flama yok.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4066921761\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Kas\u0131m ay\u0131na ait sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi verileri d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. K\u00fcresel krizin etkisini \u00e7ok \u015fiddetli bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi 2008\u2019in sonu ile 2009\u2019un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131nda, sanayi \u00fcretiminde keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O tarihten sonra 2011\u2019in ilk aylar\u0131na \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 2009\u2019un son ay\u0131 ile 2011\u2019in \u015fubat ay\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde sanayi \u00fcretiminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 14.4 d\u00fczeyinde oldu. Mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana ise daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlar\u0131 var. Mart 2011-Kas\u0131m 2011 ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.1. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da bu de\u011fere \u00e7ok yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti: Y\u00fczde 8.4. Grafik 1\u2019de hem sanayi \u00fcretimindeki y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fimler hem de s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim ortalamalar yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2012\/01\/09\/fft16_mf892714.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yava\u015flama yok\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nBu birka\u00e7 rakamdan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ilk sonu\u00e7 \u015fu: Kas\u0131m 2011 itibariyle sanayi \u00fcretiminde bir yava\u015flama yok. 2011\u2019in mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6zlenen e\u011filim (y\u00fczde 8 dolaylar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f) aynen devam ediyor. Bir de mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretim endeksine bakmakta yarar var. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda, mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi, bir ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 2.5 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131. Peki, bu azalma bir yava\u015flama g\u00f6stergesi mi?<br \/>\nBu soruya yan\u0131t verebilmek i\u00e7in mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f endeksin geli\u015fimine bakmak gerekiyor, Grafik 2\u2019de g\u00f6steriliyor. Noktal\u0131 e\u011fri endeksin kendisi, d\u00fcz e\u011fri ise k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli e\u011filim hakk\u0131nda bir fikir vermesi i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k hareketli ortalama i\u00e7in. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ya\u015fanan ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bir ilk de\u011fil. Ocak ay\u0131 hari\u00e7, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda hep b\u00f6yle ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler var. Zaten Grafik 2\u2019deki k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren d\u00fcz e\u011frinin (\u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k hareketli ortalaman\u0131n) y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda hafif\u00e7e yukar\u0131ya y\u00f6neldi\u011fi belirleniyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131 \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019 \u015feklinde; \u2018\u015fimdilik\u2019 bir yava\u015flama yok \u00fcretimde. \u2018\u015eimdilik\u2019 diyorum, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sonu\u00e7ta kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k \u00fcretim azalmas\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir ve yeni bir e\u011filim olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Olu\u015fturabilir mi?\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nAral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru 2012\u2019ye ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerimi vermi\u015ftim: Y\u00fczde 1-3 aras\u0131nda bir yerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini bekledi\u011fimi s\u00f6ylemi\u015ftim. Temel nedeni hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z Avrupa ile ilgiliydi. Birincisi, Avrupa\u2019daki bankalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apta kredi daralmas\u0131na gitmeleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 vard\u0131. \u0130kincisi, Avrupa ekonomilerinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi bekleniyordu. \u0130lki \u015firketlerimizin daha az d\u0131\u015f kaynak bulacaklar\u0131, ikincisi ise Avrupa\u2019ya daha az ihracat yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na geliyordu. Bunlar\u0131n birer olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funu tekrar hat\u0131rlatay\u0131m.<br \/>\nBu olas\u0131l\u0131klar ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse sanayi \u00fcretiminde bundan sonra daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filimi olu\u015fur. Umar\u0131m bu olas\u0131l\u0131klar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmez, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z verdi\u011fim tahminlerdeki kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmaz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Birka\u00e7 rakamdan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ilk sonu\u00e7 \u015fu: Kas\u0131m 2011 itibariyle sanayi \u00fcretiminde bir yava\u015flama yok. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131na ait sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi verileri d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. K\u00fcresel&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10112\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}