{"id":101,"date":"2010-12-12T12:09:03","date_gmt":"2010-12-12T09:09:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=101"},"modified":"2011-10-04T21:26:06","modified_gmt":"2011-10-04T18:26:06","slug":"borsada-tahmin-yapmak-iv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/borsada-tahmin-yapmak-iv\/","title":{"rendered":"Borsada Tahmin Yapmak -IV"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>15.12.2010<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2382313944\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Amigdalay\u0131 anlatt\u0131k. V\u00fccuttan k\u00f6t\u00fc sinyaller gelmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fsa ve kandaki kimyasallar h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyorsa, amigdala devreye girip sigortay\u0131 att\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bu durumda, \u00f6yle bir yol bulmal\u0131y\u0131z ki, \u201cbu yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015fine Amigdalay\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmamal\u0131y\u0131z\u201d demi\u015ftik.<br \/>\nAma kolay m\u0131?<br \/>\nYat\u0131rm\u0131\u015fs\u0131n 10 bin liray\u0131, 2 g\u00fcn sonra d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f 9 bin liraya. G\u00f6zlerinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde, ekranda para eriyip gidiyor. 1 Ayl\u0131k maa\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmi\u015fsin ve ekrana her bak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k maa\u015f kayb\u0131 1.5 aya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor\u2026 Fiyatlar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gitti\u011fi her kademe, beyinde f\u0131rt\u0131nalar yarat\u0131yor.<br \/>\nFrontal Korteks: Satarsan, daha \u00f6nceki gibi dipte satm\u0131\u015f olacaks\u0131n. Ya\u015far Hoca ne diyordu? Amigdalay\u0131 dinlemeyin diyordu..<br \/>\nAmigdala: Geri zekal\u0131 adam\u2026 durdu\u011fun kabahat\u2026 Beni dinleseydin \u015fu ana kadar zarar\u0131 300 TL\u2019de kesmi\u015ftin. Seni o dakikadan beri uyar\u0131yorum\u2026 Hani g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcs ve kar\u0131n b\u00f6lgende k\u00f6t\u00fc bir his duymu\u015ftun ya\u2026 O zamandan beri sana sesleniyorum aptal\u2026 \u00c7abuk \u015funlar\u0131 sat\u2026 kay\u0131plar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e kendini \u00f6ld\u00fcrme riskin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak\u2026 Bu Ya\u015far Hoca m\u0131 sana kaybettiklerini geri verecek?\u2026<br \/>\n***<br \/>\nBeynin karar b\u00f6lgesine hem amigdala\u2019dan hem de Frontal Korteksten elektrik sinyalleri gelir. Karar an\u0131, bu iki sinyalin elektrik g\u00fcc\u00fc ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. \u00d6nce frontal korteksin g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7 240 volt ama Amigdala\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi 120 volt\u2019dur. Ka\u011f\u0131t d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e Amigdala\u2019dan gelen sinyaller artar. Ka\u011f\u0131d\u0131n 5 liradan 4.80\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi amigdalay\u0131 180 volta \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015fsa, art\u0131k o noktadan sonra destekler birer birer a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, 4.78\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (yani 2 kuru\u015fluk daha gerileme) amigdala sinyalini daha y\u00fcksek oranda art\u0131r\u0131r ve 220 volta \u00e7\u0131kar. Bu s\u0131rada Frontal Korteks yenilmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve sinyaller gerilemeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Zaten bu nokta, Ya\u015far ERD\u0130N\u00c7\u2019e k\u00fcf\u00fcr ve lanet okuma noktas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Ya\u015far Erdin\u00e7 adama \u015f\u00f6yle nasihat veriyordu; \u201cPanik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f varsa ve borsa aniden \u00e7ok sert h\u0131zla gerilemi\u015fse, pani\u011fe kap\u0131l\u0131p satmay\u0131n\u201d.<br \/>\n\u0130\u015fte bu a\u015famada amigdalan\u0131n v\u00fccudu koruma i\u00e7 g\u00fcd\u00fcs\u00fcyle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hareketin yan\u0131nda, di\u011fer zaaflar da devreye giriyor. \u0130lk sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f an\u0131 \u015foktur ve amigdalay\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irmi\u015f, yani amigdala uyanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunun ard\u0131ndan, ilk \u015fok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen fiyat beyinde \u00e7\u0131palan\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte bu \u00e7\u0131palanan fiyattan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in g\u00f6zler ekrana yalvar\u0131r bir \u015fekilde bakmaya ba\u015flar. Fakat \u00e7\u0131palanan her fiyat kademesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 geldik\u00e7e amigdaladan gelen sinyallerin voltaj\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flar. Beyin bakar ki \u00e7\u0131pa i\u015fe yaram\u0131yor, bu sefer di\u011fer zaaflar\u0131 devreye sokar \u201cBorsada uzun vadede kazan\u0131l\u0131r, bekleyece\u011fim, zaten Ya\u015far Hoca da bu durumlarda bekleyin diyordu\u201d. Ama fark\u0131nda olmadan her d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte \u00e7\u0131palama devam etmekte, ama s\u00fcrekli olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte bu t\u00fcr zamanlarda amigdala SAAAT derken, ba\u015fka bir ses de \u201cDur satma \u015fimdi yukar\u0131 d\u00f6necek\u201d demektedir. T\u00fcm bunlar frontal korteks ve amigdala sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Bu arada akli muhsebele\u015ftirme, yani \u201czaten kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 kaybettim bekleyece\u011fim\u201d modu veya di\u011fer zaaflar hep devrededir. Ta ki, amigdala galip gelip, satt\u0131r\u0131p v\u00fccudu rahatlatana kadar. \u0130\u015fte o nokta, az \u00f6nce bahsetti\u011fim k\u00fcf\u00fcr noktas\u0131d\u0131r.<br \/>\n***<br \/>\n\u0130\u015fte t\u00fcm bu t\u00fcr ciddi amigdala-frontal korteks sava\u015flar\u0131ndan kurtulman\u0131n ve beynin zaaflar\u0131n\u0131 birer birer elimine etme yollar\u0131n\u0131n neler oldu\u011funu ve ne yapman\u0131z gerekti\u011fini anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. \u015eimdi \u015fu kelimeleri tekrarlay\u0131n.<br \/>\nD\u0130S\u0130PL\u0130N<br \/>\n\u0130ST\u0130KRAR<br \/>\nD\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK<br \/>\nHEDEF<br \/>\nS\u00dcREKL\u0130<br \/>\nY\u00d6NTEM<br \/>\nVADE<br \/>\nKAYIP<br \/>\nGET\u0130R\u0130<br \/>\n***<br \/>\nYap\u0131lan en b\u00fcy\u00fck yanl\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczeltece\u011fiz. Borsada veya fiyat hareketi olan herhangi bir piyasaya girip al\u0131m sat\u0131m yaparak para kazanacak olan adam i\u00e7in yukar\u0131da yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bu kelimeler bir anlam ifade etmemektedir. Asl\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 borsaya girerken, beyni ile bir sava\u015fa girmektedir ama fark\u0131nda de\u011fildir. O bir an \u00f6nce i\u015flemlere ba\u015flamal\u0131 ve o muhte\u015fem volelerini vurmal\u0131d\u0131r. Fakat g\u00fcnler ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e piyasa taraf\u0131ndan tokatlanmaya ve sindirilmeye ba\u015flar. Voleleri vuran taraf piyasad\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc al\u0131m sat\u0131m yaparken bir y\u00f6ntemi yoktur ve bu y\u00f6ntem amigdalaya anlat\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u201cBEN\u0130M Y\u00d6NTEM\u0130M \u015eUDUR\u2026\u201d \u015feklinde bir mesaj verilmemi\u015ftir. Sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn hemen bitece\u011fini beynin bir ba\u015fka taraf\u0131 anlat\u0131rken (\u00e7\u0131palama) di\u011fer taraf, yani amigdala SAT demektedir. \u00d6nceden haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve test edilmi\u015f bir al\u0131m sat\u0131m stratejisi yoksa, piyasan\u0131n her hareketi beyinde f\u0131rt\u0131nalar yaratacakt\u0131r. A\u00e7\u0131k denizde s\u00fcrekli f\u0131rt\u0131nalara tutulacak ve bir g\u00fcn gelecek, tekne batacakt\u0131r.<br \/>\nBu y\u00fczden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ilk yapmas\u0131 gereken \u015fey Y\u00d6NTEM\u0130N\u0130 belirlemesidir. Bu y\u00f6ntemin ge\u00e7mi\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fck testleri yap\u0131lmal\u0131 ve hangi VADEDE ortalama olarak ne kadar GET\u0130R\u0130 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunmal\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcm bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar yap\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra, HEDEFLER, yani ne kadar s\u00fcrede ne kadar getiri hedeflendi\u011fi belirlenmeli, ilgili y\u00f6ntem D\u0130S\u0130PL\u0130NL\u0130 bir \u015fekilde uygulanmal\u0131, Ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK diyebilece\u011fi getirilerin, S\u00dcREKL\u0130 oldu\u011fu ve \u0130ST\u0130KRARLI bir \u015fekilde uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda orta ve uzun vadede ciddi miktarlarda para kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sim\u00fclasyonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6rmelidir. Bu sim\u00fclasyonlar zaten hi\u00e7bir y\u00f6ntemin s\u00fcrekli kazand\u0131rmay\u0131p, yer yer KAYBETT\u0130RD\u0130\u011e\u0130N\u0130 de g\u00f6sterecek, ama toplamda ciddi bir kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6recektir.<br \/>\n***<br \/>\nBu a\u015famadan sonraki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda bu s\u00fcreci anlataca\u011f\u0131m. Diyalog \u015feklinde anlat\u0131lacak olan bu b\u00f6l\u00fcmler hazine de\u011ferindedir. Y\u00d6NTEM belirleme i\u015fi kolay bir i\u015f olmasa da, bir o kadar da kolay oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. \u0130\u015fin zor taraf\u0131, belirledi\u011finiz Y\u00d6NTEM\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015fan bir beyin b\u00f6lgesi (ZAAF) olacakt\u0131r. O b\u00f6lge, belirledi\u011finiz y\u00f6ntemin i\u015fe yaramayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda sizi ikna etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak ve \u00e7o\u011funlukla da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olacak ve sizi s\u00fcrekli olarak HEP KAZANDIRAN, yani M\u00dcKEMMELL\u0130YET\u00c7\u0130 yola do\u011fru te\u015fvik edecektir. Siz o yola girdik\u00e7e hi\u00e7bir Y\u00d6NTEM sizi tatmin etmeyecek ve Beynin o b\u00f6lgesi EN TEPE ve EN D\u0130P aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 hi\u00e7bir zaman b\u0131rakmayacakt\u0131r. Halbuki en b\u00fcy\u00fck yan\u0131lg\u0131 da budur. EN TEPE ve EN D\u0130P belirli bir zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.<br \/>\n\u201cHocam ben \u00e7ok iyi yerlerden al\u0131yorum ama bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc satmay\u0131 beceremiyorum\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fc bundan dolay\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc EN TEPE\u2019de satmay\u0131 becermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordur. 3 liradan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ka\u011f\u0131d\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 3.20\u2019den satt\u0131ktan sonra ka\u011f\u0131d\u0131n izleyen iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 3.35\u2019e gitmesi o yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in bir ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k timsali oluyor. Beynin o zaaf b\u00f6lgesi \u201cGeri Zekal\u0131 adam yine bek bekleyemedin ve satt\u0131n, bak ka\u011f\u0131t gitti\u201d mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6nderince zaten, otomatik olarak bir sonraki i\u015flemde ayn\u0131 z\u0131lg\u0131t\u0131 yememek i\u00e7in, en tepeyi aray\u0131p bulmak zorundas\u0131n\u0131zd\u0131r. Bazen de \u015f\u00f6yle oluyor. Adam 3 liradan al\u0131yor 3.20\u2019de satm\u0131yor ka\u011f\u0131t 3.35 olunca sat\u0131yor ve fiyat 3.30\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde acayip mutlu oluyor. Bunu b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 1 hafta sonra ka\u011f\u0131t 3.45\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca beyin yine adamla dalga ge\u00e7iyor \u201cBAAAK G\u00d6RD\u00dcN M\u00dc Y\u0130NE TEPEY\u0130 YAKALAYAMADIN\u2026\u201d<br \/>\nBu sefer bu hatas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131m\u0131z, 3.30\u2019dan satt\u0131ktan sonra 3.35 yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131nca yine erken satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcp 3.40\u2019tan al\u0131yor, ka\u011f\u0131t 3.45\u2019i g\u00f6r\u00fcrken mutlu oluyor, satm\u0131yor\u2026 yeniden 3.20\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc izliyor ve daha \u00f6nce kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da veriyor. Beyin yine dalga ge\u00e7iyor.<br \/>\n\u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden herkes \u00e7ok iyi yerlerden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ama bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc satmay\u0131 beceremez. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc beynin en \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc zaaf\u0131 ve size kendinizin bir halt olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatan sesi, EN TEPE ve EN D\u0130B\u0130 aratt\u0131rmas\u0131d\u0131r.<br \/>\nSiz \u015fu an istedi\u011finiz kadar bana, \u201cben EN TEPE ve EN D\u0130B\u0130 aram\u0131yorum\u201d deseniz de, zaten siz de fark\u0131nda de\u011filsiniz en tepe ve en dibi arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n. E\u011fer bir ka\u011f\u0131d\u0131 siz 4.50\u2019den satt\u0131ktan sonra ka\u011f\u0131t 4.54 fiyat\u0131na y\u00fckseldi\u011finde mutsuz oluyorsan\u0131z, ya da siz al\u0131m yapt\u0131ktan sonra ka\u011f\u0131t iki kademe daha d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde mutsuz oluyorsan\u0131z, \u201cEn tepe ve en dibi ar\u0131yorsunuz\u201d demektir.<br \/>\nPeki hocam her\u015feyi anlad\u0131k. L\u00fctfen art\u0131k anlat nereden ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131z, bu zaaflar\u0131 ve amigdalay\u0131 nas\u0131l susturaca\u011f\u0131z?<br \/>\n\u201cY\u00f6ntem\u201d, \u201chedef getiri\u201d, \u201cvade\u201d \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sa\u00e7 aya\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Gelecek yaz\u0131m\u0131z Y\u00d6NTEM \u00dczerine olacak\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>15.12.2010 Amigdalay\u0131 anlatt\u0131k. V\u00fccuttan k\u00f6t\u00fc sinyaller gelmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fsa ve kandaki kimyasallar h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyorsa, amigdala devreye girip sigortay\u0131 att\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bu durumda, \u00f6yle bir yol bulmal\u0131y\u0131z ki,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}