{"id":10092,"date":"2012-01-09T14:54:01","date_gmt":"2012-01-09T12:54:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=10092"},"modified":"2012-01-09T14:54:12","modified_gmt":"2012-01-09T12:54:12","slug":"sozle-mudahale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sozle-mudahale\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00f6zle M\u00fcdahale"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez bankalar\u0131 d\u00f6vize sadece alarak ya da satarak m\u00fcdahale etmezler. Likidite, faiz ve di\u011fer ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da kullanarak d\u00f6viz fiyat\u0131 belirlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Bunlardan birisi de s\u00f6zle m\u00fcdahaledir.<br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Bursa&#8217;da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada s\u00f6zle m\u00fcdahale arac\u0131n\u0131 kulland\u0131. Hem de son derece sert bir bi\u00e7imde.<br \/>\nBa\u015f\u00e7\u0131 piyasalara ve kamuoyuna, eskiden kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fekliyle &#8220;D\u00f6viz alan\u0131n eli yanar&#8221; mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. &#8220;Kim TL&#8217;ye para yat\u0131r\u0131rsa, kazanacak&#8221; \u015feklinde olduk\u00e7a iddial\u0131 ve d\u00f6vize olan talebi azaltmas\u0131 beklenilen beyanlarda bulundu.<br \/>\nBu s\u00f6ylemlerin alt\u0131nda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n bu y\u0131l di\u011fer yabanc\u0131 paralara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlenece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 yat\u0131yor. Avrupa iyile\u015fme sinyalleri g\u00f6sterir ve uluslararas\u0131 likidite artmaya devam ederse, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadar nakit tuttuklar\u0131 paralar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlara y\u00f6neltecekleri, Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahalenin odak noktas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bundan nasibini alacak olan TL de de\u011fer kazanacak.<br \/>\nBen de b\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ancak uluslararas\u0131 finans konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn ne getirece\u011fi hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil. Hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok belirsizlik var.<br \/>\n\u00d6te yandan s\u00fcregiden cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve enflasyon sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n alaca\u011f\u0131 durum da tam \u015fekillenmi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-226682517\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>BA\u015eKANIN R\u0130SK\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\nA\u011fustos 2011 tarihinden ge\u00e7en hafta sonuna kadar 15 milyar dolar d\u00f6viz satm\u0131\u015f bir merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n, bu s\u00fcreci durdurmak i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahale \u00f6nemli riskleri i\u00e7eriyor.<br \/>\nBirincisi, varsay\u0131mlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmezse hem kendinin hem de Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n kredibilitesi \u00f6nemli kayba u\u011frayacak.<br \/>\n\u0130kincisi, bizim milletimizin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce sisteminde &#8220;\u015f\u00fcphe&#8221; unsurunun \u00f6nemli bir yer tuttu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir. Somut bir sonu\u00e7 g\u00f6rmeden davran\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imini de\u011fi\u015ftirmez. Enflasyonun hedefine vard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n belirli bir d\u00fczeye indi\u011fini g\u00f6rmeden hareket etmez.<br \/>\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretleri giderek artan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle faizler konusunda belirsizli\u011fin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu bir ortamda bize fon sa\u011flamalar\u0131 konusunda harekete ge\u00e7meleri zaman alabilir.<br \/>\nD\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, hen\u00fcz kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kaynaklanabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir spek\u00fclatif sald\u0131r\u0131 durumunda TL&#8217;yi savunmak g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015febilir.<br \/>\nSay\u0131n Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zle m\u00fcdahalenin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 bekleyip, durumu o zaman daha iyi yorumlayabilece\u011fiz.<br \/>\nUmar\u0131m hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar. Ama olur da \u00e7\u0131kmazsa siyaset\u00e7inin sorumlulu\u011fu ataca\u011f\u0131 adres zaten \u015fimdiden belli demektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>***<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u00f6viz rezervlerini harcaman\u0131n dayan\u0131lmaz a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Merkez bankalar\u0131 finansal t\u00fcrb\u00fclanslar\u0131n etkilerini azaltmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz rezervi biriktirirler. Bu da do\u011fald\u0131r ve do\u011frudur.<br \/>\nKriz \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu d\u00f6vizleri kullanarak ekonominin u\u011frayabilece\u011fi zararlar\u0131 hafifletirler.<br \/>\nAncak ne yaz\u0131k ki bu bizde farkl\u0131 alg\u0131lan\u0131r. D\u00f6viz rezervleri milli servet gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda herkes bir anda aslan kesilir.<br \/>\n2001 krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda sat\u0131lan 5.5 milyar dolar tutar\u0131ndaki d\u00f6viz rezervi i\u00e7in &#8220;Merkez Bankas\u0131 kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131p, d\u00f6vizlerimizi pe\u015fke\u015f \u00e7ekti&#8221; diye ele\u015ftirenler, a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan bu yana sat\u0131lan 15 milyar dolar i\u00e7in seslerini \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131yorlar. Y\u00fczleri bile pembele\u015fmiyor.<br \/>\nSadece &#8220;Sat\u0131lan d\u00f6vizler T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de kald\u0131&#8221; gibi ger\u00e7ekleri yans\u0131tmayan siyasi s\u00f6ylemler ortal\u0131kta dola\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez bankalar\u0131 d\u00f6vize sadece alarak ya da satarak m\u00fcdahale etmezler. Likidite, faiz ve di\u011fer ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da kullanarak d\u00f6viz fiyat\u0131 belirlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Bunlardan birisi de s\u00f6zle&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10092\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}